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Yi Gang on the supply side reform to avoid overly loose monetary policy 小向美奈子118

Yi Gang talks about supply side reform: monetary policy to avoid over loose "China Economic Forum of 2016 annual meeting 50" will be held in Beijing in February 19th. The deputy governor of the central bank and the finance office deputy director Yi gang. (photo source: Sina Finance) Sina Financial News "China economy 50 people forum 2016 annual meeting" will be held in Beijing in February 19th. The finance office deputy director and deputy governor of the central bank [micro-blog] Yi Gang attended the meeting and speech. In the view of Yi Gang, while promoting the supply side structural reform, we should also manage the total demand well. It believes that the fiscal policy is structural policy natural, so fiscal policy when the supply side reform, should be the main battlefield of demand management, fiscal policy has many structural considerations, such as poverty alleviation, structural adjustment, and in terms of monetary policy, it should be robust, "to avoid overly loose monetary policy. Otherwise, asset price bubbles and devaluation pressure may occur". Excerpts from the speech: Yi Gang: today I’m going to talk about promoting the supply side structural reform while managing the aggregate demand. I did my homework in accordance with the requirements of the 50 forum, and did some research. At present, our supply side structural reform is to promote structural adjustment by means of reform. It takes time, then the supply side structural reform has a short, medium, and long term meaning. And the whole demand side management, its focus is to solve the problem of total quantity, demand side management mainly refers to short-term regulation. The current supply side structural reform can not be separated from the management of the appropriate total demand, and the relationship between them is as follows. First, in the current and future period, the main aspect of the contradiction lies in the structural reform of the supply side, which is a judgment. Second, the management of aggregate demand in the supply side structural reform, at the same time, in an auxiliary position, is a coordinated policy. Third, although the total demand management is the total amount of policy, but when we do total demand management, we should emphasize targeted and accurate force. The next question is how to properly manage the total demand, the so-called moderation is to grasp the degree, then this degree in what place? I would like to have three such assurance, first grasp, total demand management, so that it does not produce debt, the risk of deflation. Second considerations, can not exceed the ability to withstand society. Third considerations, no liquidity relatively large area of tightening, hold the three lines. So, obviously, the policy of aggregate demand, one is fiscal policy, and the other is monetary policy. So we are now implementing a proactive fiscal policy, and we can do more to encourage consumption and minimize the crowding out effect. Then monetary policy is prudent monetary policy, to be robust, moderate, flexible, to avoid excessive water release and loose. It should be said that the main battlefield of total demand management is fiscal policy and monetary policy. But at the same time, I want to emphasize that there are some short board policies, both supply and demand, to make up the short board the policy is good, will moderate the expansion of aggregate demand.     supply side structural reforms need total demand management; why? Because in. 易纲谈供给侧改革:货币政策要避免过度宽松   “中国经济50人论坛2016年年会”定于2月19日在北京召开。上图为中财办副主任兼央行副行长易纲。(图片来源:新浪财经)   新浪财经讯 “中国经济50人论坛2016年年会”定于2月19日在北京召开。中财办副主任兼央行[微博]副行长易纲出席并演讲。   在易纲看来,推进供给侧结构性改革的同时也要把总需求管理好。其认为,财政政策是天然的结构性政策,所以财政政策在供给侧改革的时候,应当是需求管理的主战场,“财政政策有很多结构性考虑,比如说扶贫、结构性调整”,而在货币政策方面,其认为应当稳健,“货币政策要避免过度宽松。否则可能会产生资产价格泡沫和人民币贬值压力”。   以下为演讲节选:   易纲:今天我发言的题目是关于在推进供给侧结构性改革的同时把总需求管理好。我是按照50人论坛的要求做了功课,做了研究。目前我们供给侧结构性改革,是用改革的办法来推进结构调整。它需要时间,那么供给侧结构性改革在时间含义上有短期,有中期,也有长期。而整个需求侧的管理,它的重点是在解决总量的问题,需求侧的管理主要指短期调控。   当前供给侧结构性改革离不开适当的总需求的管理,它们两者的关系有以下几种。第一,在当前和今后一个时期,矛盾的主要方面在供给侧结构性改革,这是一个判断。第二,总需求的管理在供给侧结构性改革的同时,处于一个辅助的地位,是一个配合的政策。第三,总需求的管理虽然是总量的政策,但是我们在做总需求管理的时候,应当强调有针对性和精准发力。   下面一个问题就是如何适度管好总需求,所谓适度就是把握好度,那么这个度在什么地方?我想有这么三个把握,第一个把握,总需求管理,要使它不产生债务通货紧缩的危险。第二个考虑,不能超越社会承受的能力。第三个考虑,不出现流动性比较大面积的紧缩,守住这三条线。   那么很显然,总需求的政策,一个是财政政策,一个就是货币政策。那么我们现在实行的是积极财政政策,可以在鼓励消费,尽量减少挤出效应上多做文章。那么货币政策实行的是稳健的货币政策,要稳健、适度、灵活,要避免过多的放水和宽松。应该说总需求管理的主战场是财政政策和货币政策。但是同时,我想强调的,也有一些补短板的政策,既是供给又是需求,把补短板的政策运用好的话,也会适度扩大总需求。     供给侧结构性改革需要总需求的管理,为什么呢?因为在历史上,很多结构性改革产生了紧缩效应,大家随便可以举出很多国家或地区,在很多危机中,国际货币组织建议紧缩财政,实现财政可持续就是紧缩,造成这个国家需求进一步紧缩,有的陷入通缩的情况中。在很多情况下,需要进行结构性改革的时候,我们在结构性改革的同时,要做好总需求的管理,这是基于历史经验的总结。   然后我们看供给侧需求侧的改革,当前我们认识到供给过剩和供给不足并存,供给过剩,钢铁煤炭是供给过剩,同时供给不足,马桶盖,海外的大量的购物,显然有一些产品供给不足。同时我们存在需求不足和需求不能得到满足两种情况。我们是不是要扩大需求?是,我们需求可能不足,要扩大需求。同时我们很多需求不能得到满足,就是我们结构性的问题。   第二适度扩大总需求的度在什么地方?我刚才说欧洲的一些国家或者在日本进行结构性改革的时候,都产生了一些紧缩的效应,所以我们要把握这个度,不能产生债务通缩紧缩的情况,第二个度,不能超越社会的承受能力,社会承受能力最主要指的是就业。现在我们的情况比较好,是因为我们16-59岁劳动力人口结构在下降,所以我们的就业还是比较充分的,所以现在也是一个比较好的时机进行这样的改革。同时,要保持流动性比较充裕,而且要有一个良好的货币环境。   下面我说一下总需求政策的管理分工,财政政策是天然的结构性政策,所以财政政策在供给侧改革的时候,应当是需求管理的主战场,财政政策有很多结构性考虑,比如说扶贫、结构性调整,货币政策还是要稳健。货币政策要避免过度宽松。因为货币政策过度宽松,可能会产生资产价格的泡沫和人民币贬值的压力。   最后我讲一讲,有一些补短板政策,我们在“三去一降一补”,补短板,看起来是供给侧的改革,我想强调的是,有一些补短板的政策也是扩大总需求的,也是可以从需求方入手观察这个问题。   我举几个例子,比如说棚户区改造货币化,你要给一些老百姓符合棚户区改造货币化的条件,一个是政府盖房子,让这些人到政府盖的房子里面。另一个给这些老百姓货币,分在一个账户上,让老百姓按照程序去选择在城市买房,买的可以是政府盖的房子,也可以是开发商开发的商品房。老百姓可能买到更适合的房子,更适合的朝向,更适合的地点,同时可以加一点钱,货币化看上去是一个去库存的供给侧的改革,但是实际上如果把这个库存去掉了,也可以增加房地产的投资,也可以扩大总需求。同时棚户区改造以后,还会产生家具、家电、装修这些消费。   第二个例子,比如说扶贫。我们可以精准算一下今后5年,每年有一千多万贫困人口脱贫,这里面实际上有很大的消费拓展的空间。   回答我讲话的题目,在供给侧需求结构性改革的同时,要做好总需求管理。我们就要算一下,供给侧结构性改革,它产生多大使经济向下的压力,让我们在需求侧,把这些压力补上,给它补齐了,补齐的上限不超过经济增长的潜在增长率。   以我做的功课给大家举一个例子。假如“三去一降一补”过程中产生一些经济向下的压力,但是我们可以算出来,在财政政策和货币政策这个主战场之外,我们通过棚户区改造,精准扶贫,降低五险一金,鼓励个性消费,可以补充一些GDP的总需求。在我这里补了0.75个百分点,大数就是五千亿人民币的概念。这样就比较好的控制,在改革的同时我的总需求,我的经济增长还是比较稳健的,同时又不产生过热,又不产生其他的道德风险。   谢谢!   新浪声明:所有会议实录均为现场速记整理,未经演讲者审阅,新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目的,并不意味着赞同其观点或证实其描述。相关的主题文章:

The official said the new PPP planned to introduce the project size 绵阳师范学院教务系统

The official said the new PPP planned to introduce the project sizeable improve project signing rate PPP deal – reporter Ni Mingya brewing launched China Securities News reporter was informed that in order to speed up the PPP (government and social capital cooperation) model to promote the progress and improving the project signing rate, the relevant departments are preparing to launch a series of policies and measures, including improving the value evaluation guidelines PPP method for the top draft design, is expected to PPP projects this year will significantly enhance the rate of signing landing. Deputy director of the Ministry of finance of government and social capital cooperation center Jiao Xiaoping said recently, the Ministry of finance will start the "Ministry of finance state PPP management platform" in this year, to protect the interests of social capital. After the platform is put into operation, the signing of PPP project will be timely tracked, and social capital can more easily choose investment opportunities. The scale of the project is considerable. In September last year, the Ministry of Finance announced the second batch of 206 PPP demonstration projects, with a total investment of 658 billion 864 million yuan. The number of projects is 7 times the number of the first project, and the total investment is 4 times as much as the first one. In December last year, the NDRC announced second batches of 1488 PPP projects, with a total investment of 2 trillion and 260 billion yuan. The amount and amount of the project were 42.9% and 13.9% higher than those of the first batch of projects, respectively. According to public information statistics, the NDRC announced 2529 projects to promote PPP, with a total investment of about 4 trillion and 240 billion; the Ministry of finance has launched a total of 233 PPP demonstration projects, with a total investment of about 817 billion yuan. The total investment of the two is about 4 trillion and 950 billion yuan. In fact, PPP’s "cake" is not so big, said Guan Qingyou, executive director and chief macro researcher of Minsheng securities research institute. At present, more than 3100 projects have been signed and recommended, but the project has not been included in the central project library, with a total investment of nearly 6 trillion yuan, which is about 60% of the total investment in infrastructure projects in 2014. Guan Qingyou said, usually dozens of projects will be selected everywhere submitted to the NDRC and the Ministry of finance, but ultimately only select part of the project as a demonstration project or promotion project, while providing financial support for some projects. For the project that is not selected, the local government can support its development by its own financial power. About the PPP project, the list from the Ministry of Finance announced the second batch of PPP demonstration project can be seen in the national scope, municipal projects and water projects accounted for the highest, respectively 29% and 24%; traffic projects in the second, accounting for 18%; other types of projects accounted for very different. Guan Qingyou believes that if the release of the PPP demonstration to promote the project to continue this year, then the future PPP project with respect to infrastructure projects accounted for the total may exceed other countries used 15% standards, "PPP" will become a mainstream financing model design of infrastructure projects in china. Jiao Xiaoping said the day before, the Ministry of finance will adopt a new, more transparent and predictable way to launch the third batch of pilot projects. Part of the local contract rate to be promoted, the relevant departments released data show that PPP project contract distribution is uneven, part of the existence of PPP project signed

官媒称PPP新政酝酿推出 项目规模可观   提高项目签约率 PPP新政酝酿推出   □本报记者 倪铭娅   中国证券报记者获悉,为加快PPP(政府和社会资本合作)模式的推广进度、提高项目签约率,相关部门正酝酿推出一系列政策措施,包括完善物有所值评价指引、PPP法征求意见稿等顶层设计,预计今年PPP项目签约落地率将大幅提升。   财政部政府和社会资本合作中心副主任焦小平日前表示,财政部将于今年启动“财政部国家PPP管理平台”,着力保护社会资本方利益。该平台投入运行后,PPP项目签约情况将被及时跟踪,社会资本可更方便地选择投资机遇。   项目规模可观   去年9月,财政部公布第二批共206个PPP示范项目名单,总投资额6588.64亿元。项目数量是第一批项目的7倍,总投资额是第一批项目的4倍。去年12月,发改委公布第二批共1488个推介的PPP项目,预计总投资额2.26万亿元,数量和金额分别比第一批项目高42.9%和13.9%。   据公开信息统计,发改委公布推介PPP项目2529个,总投资额约4.24万亿;财政部总计推出PPP示范项目233个,总投资额约8170亿元。二者合计投资额约4.95万亿元。   民生证券研究院执行院长、首席宏观研究员管清友表示,实际上,PPP的“蛋糕”不止这么大。目前推出的示范、推介项目与已签约但未纳入中央项目库的项目之和超过3100个,总投资额近6万亿元,约为2014年基建投资额的60%。   管清友表示,通常各地都会筛选出几十个项目报送发改委和财政部,但最终只会选择部分项目作为示范项目或推介项目,同时为部分项目提供财政支持。对于未被选中的项目,地方可以自己的财政力量支持其发展。   关于PPP项目的领域,从财政部公布的第二批PPP示范项目名单可以看出,在全国范围内,市政类项目和水务类项目占比最高,分别为29%和24%;交通类项目次之,占18%;其他类型项目占比差别不大。   管清友认为,如果今年继续发布PPP示范、推介项目,那么未来PPP项目相对于基建项目总量的占比可能超过其他国家惯常使用的15%的标准,“PPP化”将成为我国基建项目融资模式设计的主流。   焦小平日前表示,财政部将采用新的、更加透明可预期的方式推出第三批示范项目。    部分地方签约率待提升   相关部门发布的数据显示,PPP项目签约分布不均,部分地方存在PPP项目签约难的问题。   广发证券分析师郭鹏表示,如果PPP法、预算管理等得到有效落实,再加上商业银行、保险资金对PPP项目的融资支持,社会资本对PPP项目的参与热情将大幅提升。   分析人士认为,部分地区PPP项目签约率低主要是PPP项目签约流程多,容易发生变数。通常PPP项目从前期调研、物有所值研究、评估风险、建立财务模型、设计PPP模式到最后正式合同的准备至少需要半年时间。各地PPP项目推介会上项目的签约实际情况通常是,社会资本方简单了解项目后觉得有投资价值,于是确定初步投资意向,从“意向约”到“合同约”可能还存在一些变数,项目是否能落地要以最终的合同为准。   在管清友看来,PPP项目签约数量与地区经济社会发展水平有较强相关性。华东地区的浙江、江苏和山东是PPP项目签约率较领先省份,分别占全国总签约数的7%、10%、6%。在全国范围内,占比在5%以上的省份仅有7个,其中华东地区就有3个,这与经济发达、政府信誉较好、债务与或有债务偿还能力可靠有关。   一系列新政酝酿出台   为加快推进PPP项目落地,提高项目签约率,相关部门正酝酿推出新政策。   焦小平日前表示,财政部对PPP的预算管理政策正在酝酿中,今年有望问世。该政策将打消社会资本的忧虑,使PPP的示范项目的标杆作用得到充分体现。此外,财政部今年将启动财政部国家PPP管理平台,届时所有项目的项目描述、签约情况、实施进展情况、地方政府债务与或有债务情况都将会在平台上公布,着力以全透明的信息披露充分保护社会资本方的利益。   平台投入运行后,PPP项目的签约情况将被及时跟踪,社会资本可通过该平台提供的大数据分析服务选择有价值的投资机会。   分析人士认为,PPP预算管理政策将PPP纳入地方财政预算可消除社会资本对回款等因素的担忧,特别是对于海绵城市、地下管廊等投资大、回报期长、外部性特征明显、需要政府财政支付的领域将有较大促进作用。   业内人士表示,除PPP预算管理政策酝酿推出外,物有所值评价指引、PPP法征求意见稿等顶层设计正在完善。预计PPP模式将更多地转向执行层面,预计今年PPP项目的签约落地率将大幅提升。   财政部日前公布的PPP项目“以奖代补”政策从今年开始实施。平安证券分析师魏伟表示,该政策将从根本上改变地方政府对PPP项目的认识,从将PPP项目视为向中央要政策、要钱的融资通道转变为主动吸收社会资本,保证项目顺利推进。同时,引导和鼓励地方融资平台公司将存量公共服务项目转型为PPP项目,将在一定程度上化解地方政府存量债务,减轻地方政府财政压力。   魏伟认为,伴随PPP项目的逐步实施,PPP经典案例将逐渐增多,形成可复制模式加以推广势在必行。 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章: