.picks 2011 Market Outlook Webinar Transcript Part 6-chompoo araya

2011 NetPicks Market Outlook Transcript Part 6 of 7 This webinar transcript is brought to you by NetPicks, day trading systems and strategies developer since 1996. For more free day trading articles, analysis, videos, webinars, and more be sure to visit .netpicks.com/trading-tips. If you enjoyed reading about this webinar, be sure to get on our mailing list and sign up for future webinars, as well as view all past webinar recordings at ..netpicks../learning-center/training-webinars/ Now, .pare that with oil. I know Brian showed, you know, the silver on a daily and this obviously can catch some nice big moves, but then again, this certainly is tradable on a day trading — trading time frame, but on a daily time frame, you know, you really would know, you know, what to do and that’s kind of where it’s been. It’s been fairly, you know — we obviously went that range of 75 to 80 then 80 to, you know, 85 but you know, occasionally, it would pull back down a little bit hard below 80. So, obviously, I don’t like oil on a daily chart right now, but I would have probably said something different earlier on the year. So if it’s not giving it to you, you’re not seeing it, look at a different time frame. So, again, the keys are don’t let your feelings, your personal feelings — CNBC. I would do the exact opposite of whatever they tell me to do. You know, they — they — I’m watching oil — day trading oil and they’re saying, “Oh, yeah, you know, oil’s, you know, going — is — is gonna be going up,” but this isn’t the course — the market’s going down. And — so anyway, you know, we make money when the market moves, so we really personally don’t care and you shouldn’t care, don’t get emotionally attached to the direction of the market, follow your signals and trust your system, okay. Touching on trade psychology, that’s a big thing that we teach in every single course that we give you if that is the, you know, the most critical aspect of your trading success. And if you’re letting your feelings and — and things drive, whether you gonna take a trade or not, then, you know, that’s where you probably are going to fail, so — because 90% of the time, you are the cause of the errors. You, you know, you’re just — you’re hesitant and then it starts going your way, you jump in, about the time you reach your target, you know, thinking I’ll get on board this really long trade and what does it do, so — then of course, that’s when you — you packaged the box up and say this doesn’t work, but, I mean, I don’t know what kind of system it is, but, you know, give it a — a real accurate test and, you know, if you find that it works, it will be successful, I mean — so I’ve talked to — I said to just about everybody out there and, you know, there are just some people that they bought hundreds and hundreds of systems and, you know, they — when they finally .e across one that works, that they like, they just — they’re ecstatic. So, again, don’t, you know, don’t keep shopping, settle down, find the one that’s good, and then, you know, stick to it. Everybody was tied –I haven’t thrown this one in here, but looking back at 2010, you know, what I — what I was doing in 2010, swing trading Forex, okay. I used the Ultimate Swing Trader, the UST, I started calling a live trading oil for the Forex and probably it’s — the — the account has tripled since February. Obviously it’s, you know, now, it’s not being said, part of that is because the account’s grown and so we can take larger trades. So, again, you must always have real expectations, you know, you start out with a small amount. The key is we risk no more than 2% on any one trade and we have a fixed stop, so, you know, we — we don’t — we don’t generate these things and — and these were all done live. You know, you don’t just generate these things with, you know, say ________ [1:22:17], we’re going to triple your account in, you know, six months. It — it just won’t happen. You will grow it steadily — slow and steady wins the race. Day trading oil, gold and natural gas with HVMM, before I got involved with — with NetPicks, I actually didn’t even know the first things about futures, the Russell futures. And so that’s kind of grown and grown and then, you know, it’s like, hey, oil, it’s a great market, the [1:22:44] great market, they were bigger markets. They were ones that I could necessarily participated then, but now, on the point where, you know, I love trading oil. It has a movement and — and pace and it was a — it has been choppy, but, you know, again, they can fall on with — with harder times, so that’s why you got couple of the markets. Gold has gotten a little choppy lately but it will usually do some nice breakouts on the short side certainly. You know, go — it might go up $10 one day but it’s down $40 the next. But I am looking — I’m long-term bullish on gold — or bearish on gold — bullish — and it’s gonna go up, so I — that’s another possible prediction. Natural gas is a great market, very fast, excellent for trailing and you can keep really small trails. I was doing that with all of HVMM. I moved SST in the fall. I still do some HVMM, but SST is excellent for the trailing which can really get you those nice moves. Put up a new trade plan for something, again, very simple like we talked about, just an afternoon trade plan. You know, you just put on one trade starting by 2:00 in the afternoon, see what happens and it’s got a very nice one rate with natural gas, and that’s using SST. You know, back into the — the Russell. I just usually have not had time in kind of those drag on, so, you know, it — it’s one of those things that if I got time, I will add it and I’ve added the swing trading for oil, and I ultimately swung traders excellent on stocks, features and everything, as well as the Forex and so, I’m actually doing — we had a very nice alert today. I’ll show you that briefly at the very end, you know, sending an alert and pick up a nice 63 cent, so it went. So what’s new for 2011? As you can see, there’s way too many markets, okay. and there’s — there’s probably a lot of things that I would love to trade, but I just don’t have time. That’s one of the reasons I’ve got down there that I — I want to trade more stocks and options. I watch the signals all the time but I just don’t have time to review, you know, all the charts, all the things. So stay focused, keep it very simple, stick to a couple of markets. I’m still day — day trading oil and natural gas, moving to swing trading more on gold, along with the oils and trading. This way, I could be done in about one or two hours in the morning, that’s it. I don’t have to worry about anything else, then I can trade natural gas in the afternoon or maybe oil on the afternoon if I want. But, again, I do want to trade some more stocks and options, thanks to that options course from Mike and Bob and, you know, I — I really would like to add silver, so if I can factor that into, you know, stay focused and — and not worrying about too many markets, I will. I’ll show you the — the oil trade. Very, very nice, plain and simple. It came at 7:19 in the morning. Even if you didn’t get up that — at that hour, you have plenty of time to pick it up. And, you know, what I’ve thought 50% or so, and it pulled back, took some heat, but your stop is right down there at $0.64 trade again, your stop was down here at 33, and then you were rewarded with a very nice trade. We typically like to go to the first target on oil, just because you can have some larger trades, so, you know, otherwise, you’re carrying two positions and so that will be a better $1,200 loss if it did lose. But it did go up to the second target, so — I mean, it would have been very nice, you know, with the second target, but I try and keep it very simple. Most of the time it doesn’t go on with the second target before it pulls back and we get back on board. That’s it. Any questions, Mark? Mark Soberman: I — there was a question on the SMS — SMS alerts. Ron Weiland: Oh, yeah. Mark Soberman: How does somebody get on those? Ron Weiland: Well, it’s — you can just, you know, you can send an e-mail to — to me, [email protected] or [email protected] That’s part of a — the ultimate swing trader, Forex signal service which I have not called and — and it will jinx me, so we’re just doing extremely well here on 20/11. If the guys somewhere on — we’ll — we’ll — we’ll — we’ll tell you that, you know, we’re — we — we haven’t — haven’t hit too many losses, so — if any, and, one way, it’s very high. So, again, it’s just the — it’s a signal service I do in the evening about 5:00 in the afternoon, but one of those things is that I’ll send out typically one SMS alert a day on oil. And just again, [email protected] , I can get you a link _________ [1:27:24] if I would, maybe some free — free videos for you to take a look and see — see what kind of service we got. Mark Soberman: Great. All right, thanks, Ron, appreciate it. We got two more and then we’re — we’re done which is, so far has been — this fantastic information so — Troy and then we’ll — we’ll do Mike and we’ll wrap it up. So, TJ, you’re — you’re up. Troy Noonan: All right, sounds good, Mark. Mark, you want to just hand it off. I’m just gonna show some — some charts and talk through some things I’m noticing. Mark Soberman: Yeah, I should have it, I think. Ron Weiland: Yeah, I send it to him. Troy Noonan: Yeah. Let me find — all right, there we go. Let me know when you could see it? Mark Soberman: Well, we see a thousand screens. Troy Noonan: Okay, yeah. You might want to fit the screen. It’s a pretty big monitor, my new Christmas present to myself. Mark Soberman: And you tre — you trade this all on real time at once, right? Troy Noonan: Oh, yeah. Well, you know, the tortoise. It’s the tortoise approach. These are all monthly charts. Mark Soberman: Yeah, that’s true. That’s true. Okay, they are a good point. Troy Noonan: So, anyway, before we start looking at some of the things I’m observing, the few things I just want to point out, one is, you know, it’s fun to predict what’s gonna happen in the future. It’s very amusing. I get a kick out of — like everyone else. But as traders, we’re all living on the hard right edge of the chart and we know what it’s like wanting and wishing for something to happen and then the reality is what ends up happening. And we’re either right or we’re wrong, really doesn’t matter, except that if, you know, it could hurt us if it’s against our trade, so, you know, one of the things I’ve .e to piece at or I’ve .e to piece with, I should say, is I’ve — I realize that, you know what, I really don’t know that much and I’m not gonna pretend otherwise. I’m just gonna humbly admit that I don’t know what’s gonna happen and so, then I just move beyond it and I let the — the charts just kind of tell me what’s going on. Everyone has had some really great information. I agree with Shane as far as price action has to be a major .ponent to your decision making, the price action pretty much leads. That’s the only leading indicator you really have as price. Another interesting thing I want to point out is the — the answer to the first poll question that — that Mark put up. Everyone predicting what’s gonna happen, is the market gonna go up, is gonna be flat, is gonna be down or whatever and some — it was pretty much split amongst all five categories, all five answers are pretty even split more or less and that was kind of amusing to me. Five different opinions all dramatically different and it just goes to show that no one really knows, but what that also tells me is it’s great for us as traders, I mean, that’s what makes a market. So here’s what I think is gonna happen. The world is gonna continue to want to live beyond its means, okay? It’s gonna continue to want to live beyond its means. I mean, let’s face it. Most people ran out of month before they ran out of money and there’s a real imbalance. I mean, the currencies that we use in our monetary systems are not really adequate to balance the way we want to live. They don’t really hold value that well that’s why they were always going up, they’re always going down, you know. No one can rally control the value of currencies, governments can’t and, again, that’s a good opportunity for us because prices are gonna continue to move up, they’re gonna continue to move down, they’re gonna — gonna continue to befuddle everybody and so what you really want to have is a system that gives you an edge and then you just gotta manage your money properly, very small amounts of money on each trade, so that if you’re wrong, you’ll still be in the game and you could take the next trade and be right on the next one. So it’s really important that you put your trading in context to your overall trading. If you’re fretting the trade you’re in, you’re probably overtrading and that’s not a good thing because as traders, we have to take trades and if you’re fretting the trade you’re in, well, what about the next trade, what about the next trade. That’s your big indicator that you have problems so you should back off ‘till you figure that out, okay? Your risk management, your money management, has to be one of the, you know, the — the central themes to your trade plans and your trade decisions. All right. So let me show you a few things at — that I’ve noticed. You know, one other thing I want to mention is that inflation is like the big lie that we’re all fed each day by the government, by the news everyday, no inflation, low inflation and it’s all BS, they take out the two things that matter most — energy and food, right? And we all feel it, we all see those prices continuing to go up. Well, I did a little research for this webinar and I learned something very interesting and that is this: since 150, the se — the consumer price index has increased about 3.9% a year, that’s almost 4%. So if you use that as a measurement of inflation, your money is eroding at about 4% a year, okay. Well, guess what? The spot crude oil market has gone up in value, talking about value, 6.5% per year since 1950. And so one of the things that tells me, if you’re an investor then this is going beyond the realm of trading, I realized, but, you know, if you’re parking long-term money, if you’re trying to figure out what to do with your money, you have to figure out a way to fight against that 4% average annual inflation rate dating back to 1950. And my re.mendation would be to look — to put your money in energy. Because what the statistic is telling us is that energy is going to beat inflation. That’s your hedge, okay. so if you need a hedge, look to — look to park your money in energy. Just long-term, talking big picture here. All right. So I found that to be very interesting. So let me — these are monthly charts of a bunch of different markets and different categories. We were talking about the stock market obviously. That’s everyone’s main interest, I would say because that pretty much reflects what’s going on in the world pretty accurately. This is a monthly chart of the NASDAQ E-mini and if you look at all the main E-minis that Russell that — or the S&P, the YM, they’re all kind of heading higher. The NQ, the pattern looks a little bit different but the, you know, this is the system I’d like to use, the CSST, it’s been in a long trade, a reversal long, adding on of the position, this is a monthly chart but what I want to point is how it’s breaking out over a very powerful key level on a monthly chart which is right here. This high was put in back in ’07 before the ‘08 financial debacle, that rippled through the world, and the — this high was put in at 2290 — 2291 and currently, at this moment, we’re breaking out — the NQ is breaking out above that key level, okay? So that is telling us something. And if you look at the S&P, for example, the S&P, its key level is quite a bit higher, it’s up here. Okay, this is back in ’07 also, if you kind of . — want to .pare apples to apples. It hasn’t quite got nearly as high up to this key level, around the same date range, as the NQ. So it tells me that the — the — the NASDAQ tends to be the — the leader, it’s leading the charge here, but we are in rally mode with the S&P, also getting into a long-term reversal and a way to add on to one’s position, and I’m just taking their stand on SST strategy and applying it to a monthly chart, not that I would be taking these trades, but you get a lot of insight when you look at this on a big level. Okay, the YM also, the Dow E-mini — similar dynamic. But its key level is quite a bit higher. So it appears, for now, that the stock market’s heading higher and that also correlates with what we’re seeing with the quantitative using, what Brian brought up was very interesting and kind of points to some of my personal feelings. You know, inflation is — is alive and well and you could see it in the .modities market. Here is a quick look at silver, by the way, on the monthly chart. I mean, this is silver. Pretty amazing, right, and as the dollar’s been weakening and weakening, we’ve seen everything else rising in value and that makes sense, right, because if it takes more va — more dollars to buy something, well, the price has to go up to .pensate. Contrary — contrarily, if we look at 30-year T-bonds, right around when the quantitative easing started, look at how it’s going down, down, down, down, down. Because what’s happening is, the feds are buying the bonds and what’s that do? When you buy something, it — it — the price is going up, right, and that’s pushing the yields down, okay? Let’s flip over now. Now bonds are going down and that’s reflective in all the c 相关的主题文章: