Zhou Tianyong Breakthrough reform to start a new round of J growth-www.88xoxo.com

Zhou Tianyong: Breakthrough reform to start a new round of J growth the Ph.D. in economics, Professor Zhou Tianyong, Party School of the CPC Central Committee Deputy Director of the International Institute for strategic studies to consider and choose to launch a new round of economic growth in the basic premise of J, did not touch the state-owned and collective land ownership under the final form, need to have a breakthrough high strength, knowledge and use of land property rights system reform breakthrough. In twentieth Century 1978, after 30 years, the cultural revolution period, the late 80s, the late three century economic growth down, turn over to the uplink, and achieve J growth, not short-term fiscal and monetary policy implementation, also did not see the progress of technology and the industrial revolution is the initial power of its start, but changes, the party and the the national focus of economic work in rural contract, establishment of market economy system and allow the entry of foreign capital, adding WTO forced reform, three forces started very powerful breakthrough in reform. This time the new high-speed economic growth, it is impossible to start by disruptive innovation and industrial revolution. Some scholars believe that this time the rate of economic growth, the growth of L type to J growth, can rely on technology and industrial innovation to achieve. I judge the possibility is not big. The reasons are: (1) at least more than 10 years. From the emergence and second disruptive technology for the first time, to the formation of the industrial revolution, in the hundred years; third information disruptive technology to form the industrial revolution, the time in more than 50 years; the fourth technological revolution, to the fourth industrial revolution, more time may be shortened, but at least it may take 10 to 20 years the time. (2) with the previous single, or a few disruptive technology is not the same, the industrial explosive revolution, need a group, multiple, overlapping, complex, mutual influence and disruptive technology supporting. China is now beginning to nurture, discover, test to mature, and large-scale applications, the formation of a group of disruptive technology and the industrial revolution of the storm, may not be completed within 10 years. This time the new J growth, it is impossible to start by the expansion of fiscal and monetary policy. This is an operation at the end of 2008, which plans to invest 4 trillion yuan, and 9 trillion and 500 billion new yuan loans in 2009, the new foreign currency loans equivalent to 1 trillion yuan, to the 2012 economic growth rate is below 8%, until the first half of 2016. Moreover, in the case of economic contraction of the main population, quantitative easing monetary and fiscal expansion of the stimulus, and sometimes does not work, mainly because of the economic base of the population based on the total demand for shrinking. In particular, due to the early completion of the traditional industrialization, the manufacturing industry is fully redundant, even if the implementation of quantitative easing monetary policy, the currency can not flow into the existing real economy. For example, in 2016 the loan sector in July 463 billion 600 million yuan of new loans, compared with the same period last year is still less than $100 billion, and one of the residents of the housing loan is 457 billion 500 million yuan, less visible real economy loans. [1] that is to say, China has encountered the same problem with Japan, that is, in the case of shrinking population, the expansion of fiscal and monetary policy is not effective.相关的主题文章: